Brutal math is that there are 25M men in 18..50 years range in Russia, with 700K entering that range and 700K ageing out each year, so number is stable (both figures will be increasing approximately in sync over the next 10 years, to about 1M a year, so the number of men in the bracket will not change.
Which means there are about 15M of those that can be conscripted (removing those already in uniformed services of various sorts, mentally ill, disabled, busy in critical industry or government, or too criminal) and it means that a loss rate of 5x current is required to make the war demographically unsustainable for Putin.
When this is done though, in 10 years he will realise that he can't reach for any other demographic - those over 50 now will be over 60 and certainly unfit for duty, and the number of kids turning 18 each year will be falling off a cliff.
Question is how to increase the loss ratio by 5x. Certainly it can't be done on frontline alone - long range drones should hunt down people deep in Russian territory.
dfedbeef|2 months ago
anovikov|2 months ago
Which means there are about 15M of those that can be conscripted (removing those already in uniformed services of various sorts, mentally ill, disabled, busy in critical industry or government, or too criminal) and it means that a loss rate of 5x current is required to make the war demographically unsustainable for Putin.
When this is done though, in 10 years he will realise that he can't reach for any other demographic - those over 50 now will be over 60 and certainly unfit for duty, and the number of kids turning 18 each year will be falling off a cliff.
Question is how to increase the loss ratio by 5x. Certainly it can't be done on frontline alone - long range drones should hunt down people deep in Russian territory.
tim333|2 months ago