Appealing, but this is coming from someone smart/thoughtful. No offence to 'rest of world', but I think that most people have felt this way for years. And realistically in a year, there won't be any people who can keep up.
You're rather dramatically demonstrating how remarkable the progress has been: GPT-3 was horrible at coding. Claude Opus 4.5 is good at it.
They're already far faster than anybody on HN could ever be. Whether it takes another five years or ten, in that span of time nobody on HN will be able to keep up with the top tier models. It's not irrational, it's guaranteed. The progress has been extraordinary and obvious, the direction is certain, the outcome is certain. All that is left is to debate whether it's a couple of years or closer to a decade.
You're all arguing over how many single digit years it'll take at this point.
It doesn't matter if it takes another 12 or 36 months to make that claim true. It doesn't matter if it takes five years.
Is AI coming for most of the software jobs? Yes it is. It's moving very quickly, and nothing can stop it. The progress has been particularly exceptionally clear (early GPT to Gemini 3 / Opus 4.5 / Codex).
im hoping this can introduce a framework to help people visualize the problem and figure out a way to close that gap. image generation is something every one can verify, but code generation is perhaps not. but if we can make verifying code as effortless as verifying images (not saying it's possible), then our productivity can enter the next level...
dontlikeyoueith|2 months ago
I've heard the same claim every year since GPT-3.
It's still just as irrational as it was then.
adventured|2 months ago
They're already far faster than anybody on HN could ever be. Whether it takes another five years or ten, in that span of time nobody on HN will be able to keep up with the top tier models. It's not irrational, it's guaranteed. The progress has been extraordinary and obvious, the direction is certain, the outcome is certain. All that is left is to debate whether it's a couple of years or closer to a decade.
airstrike|2 months ago
Bold claim. They said the same thing at the start of this year.
adventured|2 months ago
It doesn't matter if it takes another 12 or 36 months to make that claim true. It doesn't matter if it takes five years.
Is AI coming for most of the software jobs? Yes it is. It's moving very quickly, and nothing can stop it. The progress has been particularly exceptionally clear (early GPT to Gemini 3 / Opus 4.5 / Codex).
yuedongze|2 months ago
drlobster|2 months ago