[enduser]

This is a very insightful take. People forget that there is competition between corporations and nations that drives an arms race. The humans at risk of job displacement are the ones who lack the skill and experience to oversee the robots. But if one company/nation has a workforce that is effectively 1000x, then the next company/nation needs to compete. The companies/countries that retire their humans and try to automate everything will be out-competed by companies/countries that use humans and robots together to maximum effect.

[avereveard]

Overseeing robot is a time limited activity. Even building robot has a finite horizon.

Current tech can't yet replace everything but many jobs already see the horizon or are at sunset.

Last few time this happened the new tech, whether textile mills or computers, drove job creation as well as replacement.

This time around some component of progress are visibile, because end of the day people can use this tech to create wealth at unprecedented scale, but other arent as the tech is run with small teams at large scale and has virtually no related ondustries is depends on like idk cars would. It's energy and gpus.

Maybe we will be all working on gpu related industries? But seems another small team high scale job. Maybe few tens of million can be employed there?

Meanwhile I just dont see the designer + AI job role materializing, I see corpos using AI and cutting the middleman, while designers + AI get mostly ostracized, unable to raise, like a cran in a bucket of crabs.

[misnome]

> because end of the day people can use this tech to create wealth at unprecedented scale

_Where?_ so far the only technology to have come out widespread for this is to shove a chatbot interface into every UI that never needed it.

Nothing has been improved, no revelatory tech has come out (tools to let you chatbot faster don’t count).

[vlovich123]

I think you’ve missed the point. Cars replaced horses - it wasn’t cars+horses that won. Computers replaced humans as the best chess players, not computers with human oversight. If successful, the end state is full automation because it’s strictly superhuman and scales way more easily.

[9rx]

> Computers replaced humans as the best chess players, not computers with human oversight.

Oh? I sat down for a game of chess against a computer and it never showed up. I was certain it didn't show up because computers are unable to without human oversight, but tell me why I'm wrong.

[baq]

Humans still play chess and horses are still around as a species.

(Disclaimer: this is me trying to be optimistic in a very grim and depressing situation)

[ForHackernews]

Unless the state of the art has advanced, it was the case that grandmasters playing with computer assistance ("centaur chess") played better than either computers or humans alone.

[ahf8Aithaex7Nai]

Perhaps you have missed the essential point. Who drives the cars? It's not the horses, is it? And a chess computer is just as unlikely to start a game of chess on its own as a horse is to put on its harness and pull a plow across a field. I'm not entirely sure what impact all this will have on the job market, but your comparisons are flawed.

[ErroneousBosh]

> Computers replaced humans as the best chess players

Computers can't play chess.

[impossiblefork]

I think the big problem here though, is that humans go from being mandatory to being optional, and this changes the competitive landscape between employers and workers.

In the past a strike mattered. With robots, it may have to go on for years to matter.

[baq]

A strike going long enough and becoming big enough becomes a political matter. In the limit, if politicians don't find a solution, blood gets spilled. If military and police robots are in place by that time, you can ask yourself what's the point of those unproductive human leeching freeriders at all.

[simgt]

In this scenario wages will have been driven down so much that there will be barely anyone left to buy the products made by these fully automated corps. A strike won't work, but a revolt may and is more likely to happen.

[jimbokun]

Why not just have the robots oversee the robots?