[ebcode]

> A 10% improvement every month gets to be a 10x improvement in (math...)

1.1^24=9.85, so yeah, if you could reliably get a 10% speed-up each month, you’d get to 10x in roughly 2 years. (But I’d expect the speed-up per month to be non-linear.)

[verdverm]

it would be hard to account for model / agentic capability increases in the next 2 years, b/c which side of multiple Nx on its own is hard to predict