This just returns us to the question — if it makes all these things so easy and fast, where are the AI-generated apps? Where is the productivity boost?
People start announcing that they're using AI to do their job for them? Devs put "AI generated" banners all over their apps? No, because people are incentivised to hide their use of AI.
Businesses, on the other hand, announce headcount reductions due to AI and of course nobody believes them.
If you're talking about normal people using AI to build apps those apps are all over the place, but I'm not sure how you would expect to find them unless you're looking. It's not like we really need that many new apps right now, AI or not.
The article provides a few good signals: (1) an increase in the rate at which apps are added to the app store, and (2) reports of companies forgoing large SaaS dependencies and just building them themselves. If software is truly a commodity, why aren't people making their own Jiras and Figmas and Salesforces? If we can really vibe something production-ready in no time, why aren't industry-standard tools being replaced by custom vibe clones?
I would expect a general rise in productivity across sectors, but with the largest concentrated in the tech sector given the focus on code generation. A proliferation of new apps, new features, and new functionalities at a quicker pace than pre-AI. Given the hype, one would expect an inflection point in the productivity of this sector, but it mostly just appears linear.
I am very willing to believe that there are many obscure and low-quality apps being generated by AI. But this speaks to the fact that mere generation of code is not productive, that generating quality applications requires other forms of labor that is not presently satisfied by generative AI.
I would expect a _big_ increase in the production of amateur/hobbyist games. These aren’t demand driven; they’re basically passion projects generally. And that doesn’t seem to be happening; steam releases are actually modestly _down_, say.
Its not productivity boosting in a sense of "you can leave 2h earlier", but in a sense of "you get more done faster", resulting in more stuff created. Thats my general assumption/approach for "using AI to code".
When it comes to "AI-generated apps" that work out of the box, I do not believe in them - I think for creating a "complete" app, the tools are not good enough (yet?). Context & co is required, esp. for larger apps and to connect the building blocks - I do not think there will be any remarkable apps coming out of such a process.
I see the AI tools just as a junior developer who will create datastructures, functions, etc. when I instruct it to do so: It attends in code creation & optimization, but not in "complete app architecture" (maybe as sparring partner)
thunky|2 months ago
People start announcing that they're using AI to do their job for them? Devs put "AI generated" banners all over their apps? No, because people are incentivised to hide their use of AI.
Businesses, on the other hand, announce headcount reductions due to AI and of course nobody believes them.
If you're talking about normal people using AI to build apps those apps are all over the place, but I'm not sure how you would expect to find them unless you're looking. It's not like we really need that many new apps right now, AI or not.
callc|2 months ago
The link at the bottom of the post (https://mikelovesrobots.substack.com/p/wheres-the-shovelware...) goes over this exactly.
> Businesses, on the other hand, announce headcount reductions due to AI and of course nobody believes them.
It’s an excuse. It’s the dream peddled by AI companies: automate intelligence so you can fire your human workers.
Look at the graphs in the post, then revisit claims about AI productivity.
The data doesn’t lie. AI peddlers do.
bccdee|2 months ago
garden_hermit|2 months ago
I am very willing to believe that there are many obscure and low-quality apps being generated by AI. But this speaks to the fact that mere generation of code is not productive, that generating quality applications requires other forms of labor that is not presently satisfied by generative AI.
rsynnott|2 months ago
KellyCriterion|2 months ago
When it comes to "AI-generated apps" that work out of the box, I do not believe in them - I think for creating a "complete" app, the tools are not good enough (yet?). Context & co is required, esp. for larger apps and to connect the building blocks - I do not think there will be any remarkable apps coming out of such a process.
I see the AI tools just as a junior developer who will create datastructures, functions, etc. when I instruct it to do so: It attends in code creation & optimization, but not in "complete app architecture" (maybe as sparring partner)