It's because of selection bias. In the older vehicles, customers won't turn on autopilot if they think it won't handle the situation. So, they turn it on highways and easier paths.
People often don't report minor accidents. Someone scrapes a pole without causing enough damage to hit their insurance deductible, are they going to file a police report? Mostly not. And then the older number had that in it and the newer one doesn't.
But the number for human drivers works like the old number. They're dividing miles driven by reported accidents. On top of that, they're using the average -- by miles -- which isn't the same as the median, and in particular that will over-represent drivers who drive the most miles, who are disproportionately professional drivers.
Let's be real. The real bar is drunk humans. I can scream and yell and not be friends with anybody who would put other people in danger like that, and they'll still drive drunk. FSD is good enough that it'll detect the driver's fallen asleep and pull over and park the car. Tesla can't talk about that for obvious legal reasons, but that's already saved many lives. Unfortunately we can't know those stats for comparison and holy shit people need to not drive drunk, but DUI laws don't cure addiction.
AnthonyMouse|2 months ago
People often don't report minor accidents. Someone scrapes a pole without causing enough damage to hit their insurance deductible, are they going to file a police report? Mostly not. And then the older number had that in it and the newer one doesn't.
But the number for human drivers works like the old number. They're dividing miles driven by reported accidents. On top of that, they're using the average -- by miles -- which isn't the same as the median, and in particular that will over-represent drivers who drive the most miles, who are disproportionately professional drivers.
fragmede|2 months ago