There are two types of broken clocks. One is always suspicious, the other thinks nothing ever happens. One is more often right than the other, but both are equally broken.
There's a world of difference between "nothing happens with 100% probability" and "nothing happens with 98% probability", even though they can look like the same thing when talking casually.
If you always say "it's 98% nothing", you're still broken because you'll err on the side of "nothing" in all cases where it's something. Your false negative rate would be 100%. For your statements to have any value, you'll have to get at least some of the 2% where it's something right.
energy123|2 months ago
ndarray|2 months ago