[thefaux]

This logic is both too broad and rigid to be of much practical use[1]. It needs to be tightened to compare languages that are identical except for static type checks, otherwise the statically typed language could admit other kinds of errors (memory errors immediately come to mind) that many dynamic languages do not have and you would need some way of weighing the relative cost to reliability of the different categories of errors.

Even if the two languages are identical except for the static types, then it is clearly possible to write programs that do not have any runtime type errors in the dynamic language (I'll leave it as an exercise to the reader to prove this but it is very clearly true) so there exist programs in any dynamic language that are equally reliable to their static counterpart.

[1] I also disagree with your definition of reliability but I'm granting it for the sake of discussion.

[threethirtytwo]

You’re objecting on the wrong axis.

The claim was about reliability and lack of empirical evidence. Once framed that way, definitions matter. My argument is purely ceteris paribus: take a language, hold everything constant, and add strict static type checking. Once you do that, every other comparison disappears by definition. Same runtime, same semantics, same memory model, same expressiveness. The only remaining difference is the runtime error set.

Static typing rejects at compile time a strict subset of programs that would otherwise run and fail with runtime type errors. That is not an empirical claim; it follows directly from the definition of static typing. This is not hypothetical either. TypeScript vs JavaScript, or Python vs Python with a sound type checker, are real examples of exactly this transformation. The error profile is identical except the typed variant admits fewer runtime failures.

Pointing out that some dynamic programs have no runtime type errors does not contradict this. It only shows that individual programs can be equally reliable. The asymmetry is at the language level: it is impossible to deploy a program with runtime type errors in a sound statically typed language, while it is always possible in a dynamically typed one. That strictly reduces the space of possible runtime failures.

Redefining “reliability” does not change the result. Suppose reliability is expanded to include readability, maintainability, developer skill, team discipline, or development velocity. Those may matter in general, but they are not variables in this comparison. By construction, everything except typing is held constant. There is literally nothing else left to compare. All non-type-related factors are identical by assumption. What remains is exactly one difference: the presence or absence of runtime type errors. At that point, reliability reduces to failure count not as a philosophical choice, but because there is no other dimension remaining.

Between two otherwise identical systems, the one that can fail in fewer ways at runtime is more reliable. That conclusion is not empirical, sociological, or debatable. It follows directly from the setup.