[sak84]

I think you're right that 10x isn't realistic for most work, and Brooks is still mostly correct. The "No Silver Bullet" argument holds because most of software development isn't typing code faster.

But you're describing exactly the shift that matters. You're not running faster, you're getting better quality. You're more likely to understand dependencies, write tests, try multiple solutions. That's the actual productivity gain.

The marshmallow challenge point isn't about whether AI makes you 10x faster. It's about the mindset shift. The MBAs didn't lose because they were slower. They lost because they spent their time planning the perfect approach instead of iterating.

The memory leak example from Boris Cherny isn't about AI being reliable. It's about his coworker not having the baggage of "this is how you debug memory leaks." They just tried asking Claude first. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. But the willingness to try it first is what creates the gap.

[PaulHoule]

Personally I think it's that I know how to do software development and I always have my eyes on getting the project done.

I don't think about AI tools a lot. I use Junie because it is integrated with my favorite IDE and like sending more money Jetbrain's way. I don't read blogs or tweets about AI coding.

What I do do is try little things that are always oriented to the work in front of me. I work for an MBA who is great at what he does but when he tried "vibe coding" he got nowhere and had that similar feeling of puzzlement from the gap between the results he got and the results that influencers say they are getting that a lot of people express. I've learned AI assisted coding by doing and from square one I realized it was going to work some of the time and fail some of the time and have always prioritized not getting stuck. It's certainly fair to make some wild (but well-formed) request and see what you can get.