[faitswulff]

> They’ll nationalize and inflate away any institutional debt or wipe it out

This is just the reverse, actually, China isn’t afraid to go so far as to jail CEOs. There is no such thing as too big to fail in China, and all the Chinese domestic companies know it. The bailout playbook is a western thing.

[toomuchtodo]

China has been performing debt swaps with local governments to clean up their balance sheets [1], so used as an example. Agree with all of your comment. People make the mistake that China plays by artificial US capital market rules around profit and debt; they do not. They optimize for physical world success, not line go up.

[1] Why China Is Hoping $1.6 Trillion Can Fix Its Hidden Debt Problem - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-16/china-eco... | https://archive.today/HsaHV - April 16th, 2025

[faitswulff]

Ah, I think I get it. Are you saying that regardless of BYD’s continued existence, China will still have 1/3 of the world’s manufacturing capacity?

[refurb]

There is no free lunch. Debt in China is still owed to someone. Printing money creates inflation. Oversupply leads to deflation.

It’s why China’s real estate company debt is dragging down the economy as a whole. It’s all connected.

China very much is held to the same rules as the US, especially as it engages with the global financial system.

Which is why they are in so much trouble. The economy is anemic. The last stimulus package barely made a difference. Debt overhang remains.

[victorbjorklund]

They only jail the people that upset the regime.

[ben_w]

From the outside, it appears that "upset the regime" includes "cheating your way into profits".

That said, it's very difficult to be sure if what I see from the outside is propaganda. Or rather, it is always propaganda even when it's true, and I can't tell how much of it is China's own self-promotion vs. other people giving negative propaganda.