[bjelkeman-again]

Russia started the full scale invasion with 190 000 troops (out of 1 M total active military personnel). Today they have 700 000 deployed in Ukraine. Casualties are probably 200 000 killed and up to a 1 M injured. At the same time they now have 1.3 M total active military personnel. Estimate that 1/3 of the injured are bad enough that they aren’t effective as soldiers. That is 500k unrecoverable losses, and a military that is 300k larger, so they have recruited another 800k to be where they are today.

If they stop fighting actively, then it becomes easier to recruit again without mobilising. Give it a few years and they could have another go at some other location. They clearly don’t care about casualties. Maybe not against NATO, but Georgia, Azerbaijan etc. And so it could continue for a very long time.

”Oceania was at war with Eastasia: Oceania had always been at war with Eastasia.”

Citations for numbers from Claude, that are all best estimates.