Given that Robotaxis are currently crashing at a much higher rate than human-driven vehicles, it seems risky to put a large majority of your company's future earnings and growth in that basket.
On the Optimus front, I spent years in manufacturing. This industry is conservative and deeply relationship driven. Plants prioritize uptime and proven reliability, and they're slow to adopt newcomers. ABB is the 800-pound gorilla here - just as they have been in the PLC space for decades. ABB's long-standing relationships and deep integration support make it incredibly hard for newcomers to gain traction. I should know - I worked for one of their competitors!
Bottom line: Tesla's strategy hinges on two moonshots in industries where incumbents are entrenched and adoption cycles are slow. If these bets don't pay off, Tesla needs a fallback - energy storage, grid solutions, or advanced EV platforms - before the narrative collapses. They'd be wise to leverage their EV business to launch these initiatives, but waning consumer confidence and declining sales make that increasingly difficult.
> Given that Robotaxis are currently crashing at a much higher rate than human-driven vehicles
Robotaxis/cybercabs or whatever are not currently self driving. They’re Level 3, given the requirement for human monitors. To my knowledge, they’re doing fine safetywise as Level 3 systems.
>If these bets don't pay off, Tesla needs a fallback
Good news! No matter what Tesla does, Musk's orbiters will tell you that Tesla isn't a <thing they currently do> company, it's actually a bet on <future, tangentially-related thing>.
Elon built up Tesla, to his great credit.
He also has gone out of his way to undermine the car business. He enthusiastically endorsed getting rid of the EV car credit, publicly stating that it would help Tesla.
And his DOGE antics have turned the Tesla brand toxic in the eyes of so many people in the US and around the world.
(I own a Tesla and had many people advice me to sell it or to put a sticker on it to avoid vandalism).
There is no doubt that an important part of Elon's businesses has been setting big bold and exciting goals that attract great talent.
Is there any indication that Elon has messed up talent recruitment like he messed up the Tesla brand for consumers?
And how much worse would Tesla sales be without tariffs and protectionism in the U.S. and Europe?
It is sad to see how Musk has pissed away Tesla's technological leadership. Those BVD and Huawei cars make the Tesla product look outdated at this point.
If Waymo or BYD (or Mercedes or GM, lol) get to Level 5 before 2030, and Tesla is still struggling with Level 4, the door shuts. Cameras-only autonomy starts getting banned. (We may see it sooner in e.g. China, India, the EU, and New York and California as a result of Trump-Musk politics.)
That said, it’s a Musk company, so downside is capped. If it fell below $100 to 500bn, xAI or SpaceX will buy it.
Does anyone pay for Grok? Despite claims of profitability, SpaceX still needs huge investments despite having spent all the lunar lander money without producing anything more than a render. Tesla is valued at more than the rest of the car industry put together, even after two years of stagnation and collapsing margins. Though it overlaps the AI bubble, Elon accounts for more of a general tech bubble than anyone else. Oracle might crash and burn first, but the Elonverse is the really big bubble.
Did they move to Texas and spend $300m getting Trump elected?
Did they pander disrespectfully and partisanly?
Is that selling electric cars to Republicans?
Did they build a "cyber" puss-APC product for the wider market and then piss it away on the largest steel stamping machine in Texas, nay the world (which is a single point of failure for production and maintenance)?
Someone should explain to them that there are less hazardous batteries than Lithium Ion.
It's like there's a freeloading pandering narcissist who's assumed Elon's identity (because they were such a risk to other operations where there is not such accountability to a board and to the people).
taylodl|1 month ago
On the Optimus front, I spent years in manufacturing. This industry is conservative and deeply relationship driven. Plants prioritize uptime and proven reliability, and they're slow to adopt newcomers. ABB is the 800-pound gorilla here - just as they have been in the PLC space for decades. ABB's long-standing relationships and deep integration support make it incredibly hard for newcomers to gain traction. I should know - I worked for one of their competitors!
Bottom line: Tesla's strategy hinges on two moonshots in industries where incumbents are entrenched and adoption cycles are slow. If these bets don't pay off, Tesla needs a fallback - energy storage, grid solutions, or advanced EV platforms - before the narrative collapses. They'd be wise to leverage their EV business to launch these initiatives, but waning consumer confidence and declining sales make that increasingly difficult.
JumpCrisscross|1 month ago
Robotaxis/cybercabs or whatever are not currently self driving. They’re Level 3, given the requirement for human monitors. To my knowledge, they’re doing fine safetywise as Level 3 systems.
stackghost|1 month ago
Good news! No matter what Tesla does, Musk's orbiters will tell you that Tesla isn't a <thing they currently do> company, it's actually a bet on <future, tangentially-related thing>.
peacebeard|1 month ago
Citation needed
mocana|1 month ago
moogly|1 month ago
TylerLives|1 month ago
mocana|1 month ago
JumpCrisscross|1 month ago
If Waymo or BYD (or Mercedes or GM, lol) get to Level 5 before 2030, and Tesla is still struggling with Level 4, the door shuts. Cameras-only autonomy starts getting banned. (We may see it sooner in e.g. China, India, the EU, and New York and California as a result of Trump-Musk politics.)
That said, it’s a Musk company, so downside is capped. If it fell below $100 to 500bn, xAI or SpaceX will buy it.
Zigurd|1 month ago
JumpCrisscross|1 month ago
This is false. SpaceX is cash flow positive.
belter|1 month ago
- https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/02/tesla-tsla-q4-2025-vehicle-d...
Bullish :-)
unknown|1 month ago
[deleted]
epolanski|1 month ago
Will probably +3% tomorrow.
hijackd_rc|1 month ago
Did they pander disrespectfully and partisanly?
Is that selling electric cars to Republicans?
Did they build a "cyber" puss-APC product for the wider market and then piss it away on the largest steel stamping machine in Texas, nay the world (which is a single point of failure for production and maintenance)?
Someone should explain to them that there are less hazardous batteries than Lithium Ion.
It's like there's a freeloading pandering narcissist who's assumed Elon's identity (because they were such a risk to other operations where there is not such accountability to a board and to the people).
hijackd_rc|1 month ago
sidibe|1 month ago
unknown|1 month ago
[deleted]
jaggs|1 month ago