[cman1444]

Indeed. If I'm Xi, I'm invading Taiwan tomorrow. Russia invading Ukraine, USA decapitating Venezuela....there's not even a pretense that international law matters any more.

It's also clear that Trump only respects power, which China clearly has. He already backed off tariffs with the critical minerals threat. Unlikely he'd come to Taiwan's aid in my opinion.

With political polarization in America, you can bet all kinds of fingers would start pointing at Trump in America, saying he enabled it by meddling with Venezuela. Stock market collapse from TSMC blockade would enhance this even moreso. I wouldn't count on much, if any, rallying around the flag effect.

[MisterMower]

I’m skeptical any of this is true.

How does Maduro being ousted change the physical realities of an amphibious invasion of Taiwan? You think international law is what has been preventing Xi from invading?

Trump does only respect power, as do all other serious leaders. Power is all that matters in the end.

How do you think the system of international law came into existence? It was imposed by the US at the end of WWII because of their overwhelming military strength and the fact that no other nation had nuclear weapons at the time.

The armchair analysis from some folks on this topic is really lacking. You guys are just wrong, and the hubris you bring with your “analysis” is really off putting.

[cman1444]

>How does Maduro being ousted change the physical realities of an amphibious invasion of Taiwan? You think international law is what has been preventing Xi from invading?

It doesn't change the physical realities of that much at all besides maybe slightly further cementing that the US will not come to Taiwan's aid.

No, the main change is that now Xi can more reliably expect a weaker, less unified response from the west due to political divisions inside America as well as between western nations. He can expect less diplomatic pushback, fewer sanctions, etc.

Also, no all serious leaders do not only respect power. Serious leaders who are also morally and ethically good also take into account right and wrong when they make decisions.

The right thing to do would be for America to try to preserve and enforce a rules based order, regardless if other countries do. America has significant agency in the world and should consider how the world should be and try to get there. Not only consider how the world is.

[xpe]

> Power is all that matters in the end.

This can mean different things to different people, such as:

(A) Power dynamics determine outcomes i.e. a claim about how the world works

(B) Might makes right i.e. rejecting ethical notions of right and wrong

I'm pretty sure you mean (A). Fair? Are there other meanings you want to endorse? Some form of nihilism perhaps?

[xpe]

> The armchair analysis from some folks on this topic is really lacking. You guys are just wrong, and the hubris you bring with your “analysis” is really off putting.

From https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

> Please don't fulminate. Please don't sneer, including at the rest of the community.

> Be kind. Don't be snarky. Converse curiously; don't cross-examine. Edit out swipes.

I have put in good faith efforts to convert with MisterMower, for example, in [1]. Shortly after that, they insulted me. [2] This is also against the HN Guidelines, and that kind of behavior is not welcome here. Here are additional examples of hostility and insults they've made:

> Old farts like yourself [3]

> In case you don't understand how analogies work [4]

[1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46488285

[2]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46495327

[3]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46491155

[4]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45001357

[komali2]

> How does Maduro being ousted change the physical realities of an amphibious invasion of Taiwan?

Taking the beaches here would require spilling the blood of tens of thousands of PLA troops, but as demonstrate two days ago, the only real barrier to blockading us was the threat of the USA showing up.

Xi's hunger for Taiwan shouldn't be underestimated. It's utterly irrational but it is his obsession. It's becoming clear he intends to die in office, and he's seeing his legacy as a mirror of that of the entire communist revolution - he wants to be the next Mao, with a permanent framed photo on the wall of every school and many houses in the PRC. Mao was happy to waste millions of PLA in every conflict the PRC engaged in as an outright military strategy, he called it something like "drowning the enemy in a sea of bodies," Xi will be the same.

[UltraSane]

An invasion of Taiwan is incredibly risky for China and will be guaranteed to be very expensive.

[wslh]

Just guessing but a long term strategy from Xi could be to wait and show that he is different and gain simpathy.

[pembrook]

Except this was already going to happen and everybody has known for years.

Xi made a new years address just a few days ago essentially saying China would reunite Taiwan.

[komali2]

> reunite

This is the incorrect word to use since the PRC has never held territory here. If the PLA sets foot on Taiwan, that's an imperialist invasion, nothing less, unless the people of Taiwan have democratically chosen to abdicate their government for CPC rule, in which case the word should be "unify" or "merge."

[jacquesm]

China would invade Taiwan.

You're subconsciously echoing Chinese propaganda.