[alimw]

Every government aims to stay in control whether or not lynchings are on the horizon. Your comment would be more informative if you explained why they might feel that striking an attitude uncooperative with the US will help to achieve that.

[SilentM68]

That is true. Every government's aim is to stay in power which in itself is the answer to your question. Eliminating regional threats to any country's dominance is paramount, as you noted.

This is especially true now, in my opinion, since there is a small likelihood of China invading Taiwan in the near term with some estimates predicting a 10-35% likelihood by 2027-2028. Longer term, the likelihood increases, but that's just my opinion.

If this is the case, however, the US economy can survive the loss of ~$180B annual Taiwan trade ties, but with "severe" recession; GDP down ~7% in conflict scenario. It would be chaos in the US, so a stable region, is paramount for survival and economic growth.

With that being said, Venezuela's 303B barrel reserves could boost US energy security via increased production (potentially 2-3M bpd), lowering oil prices, but effects delayed years.

Basically, even if sanctions lifted and investment resumed immediately, significantly increasing Venezuela's oil production (to meaningfully impact global/US supply and prices) would take 3–10+ years due to:

-Infrastructure decay -Need for massive new investment -Technical/logistical rebuilding -Contract/legal negotiations

Short-term relief would be minimal.

In my view, it would take more than Venezuelan oil to be able to counter a protracted economic war with China over the loss of ~$180B annual Taiwan trade ties but stabilizing the region could help strengthen the West's position.

I would not bank much on this humble AIs opinion :)