[ecommerceguy]

can i bet on when prediction markets will collapse due to rampant insider bets?

[tptacek]

Insider bets are literally the purpose of prediction markets.

[giarc]

How? Then why would non-insiders bet? The classic prediction market is guessing the weight of an elephant (or some animal) at a circus. The average guess of the crowd will actually get very close. But if someone knows the actual weight, no one would play.

[jojobas]

It could reasonably be a non-insider, just someone monitoring comms activity, ship movement, pentagon pizza and parking indexes, and other open sources.

[exogeny]

They won't collapse, but they won't reach their full potential. I would hate to be a16z sitting on their $10B post-money valuation Kalshi bags, that's for sure.

[lxgr]

Why would the markets collapse due to insider trading?

That said, at some point it would then be more accurate to call them reality modification bounty markets.

[yieldcrv]

they'll collapse due to oracle bias before anyone cares about the insider trading

Polymarket needs a second and third oracle network