[enjeyw]

Well markets are evaluated on a number of different metrics depending on what you’re trying to determine.

If you want to go be pedantic about it and select one metric, markets are evaluated on their Brier Score or some other Proper Scoring Rule, not accuracy.

However, I prefer calibration as a high level way to explain prediction market performance to people, as it’s more intuitive.

[bitshiftfaced]

Yeah it's a good way to introduce the idea. But I don't think someone would really grasp it until they understand why both calibration and "discrimination" are necessary in determining if a prediction market is accurate.

[kurtis_reed]

Proper scoring rules measure accuracy

[A4ET8a8uTh0_v2]

I suspect that you are arguing semantics, where parent and grandparent focus on the nuance of what is ACTUALLY being measured. I am saying it like this, because while I never used prediction markets, I briefly looked into them to see if I could use them well. The question of accuracy came up, which is why I happen to align with posters above.

With that in mind, what do mean exactly.