[mongol]

Well written although very typical French in verbosity, to my eyes at least

Among the listed scenarios, I can see others too. Let's imagine the Danes covertly are able to construct a completely independent crises. Or by random event some disaster happens. Let's say an earthquake in California. It would require attention to domestic affairs for a while

[faidit]

A few longships full of berserkers ought to do the trick.