[jibe]

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL

Job openings are still very high, ~30% higher than the average for the last few decades.

[coryfklein]

This has been called out by the Moody's Analytics economists in their podcast [0] for a while. The generally accepted explanation is that online job postings no longer map 1:1 to actual open positions at companies, ie many companies are not actually hiring despite having a listing for an open role.

This has become common enough that it has gained it's own term: "ghost" postings/listings.

[0] https://www.moodys.com/web/en/us/insights/podcasts/inside-ec...

[jibe]

We also have the unemployment numbers, and they are low. If job openings were largely ghost listings, and we were in a stealth recession, we'd see it in rising unemployment. Now unemployment HAS been creeping up, but still is low. If it hits 5% then I'd worry about a downturn.

[zeroonetwothree]

The data in the FRED link doesn't come from online job postings but rather from surveys that businesses complete about their open positions. They don't really have much reason to lie in those surveys (or at least not any more than they have in the past?)

[talloaktrees]

honest question, because it's something I don't understand well. is it possible the quantity of job openings can mask the quality of jobs openings? if job openings at fast food restaurants goes up 1000% maybe this isn't positive

[nemomarx]

You want to look at info broken down by sector and wages yeah. Look into "underemployment" for more

[marcosdumay]

Yes, employment statistics rarely tell you anything about the quality of the jobs. And when they do tell something, it's the simplest information possible.

But the statistics are selected in a way that if a society maintains a low headline unemployment for a long time, it's correlated to an increase in the quality of the jobs¹. The correlation is still not perfect, and authoritarian countries love to redefine the date so their absolute value changes.

1 - More clearly, a constant low unemployment correlates to a positive derivative in quality. And a constant high unemployment correlates to a negative derivative in quality.

[lotsofpulp]

Cash is king. Look at change in income by quintile (or preferably decile, but I was too lazy to check mark all those and make a graph)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1Q95B&heig...

[standeven]

Shouldn’t job openings always trend upwards with increasing population?

[asperous]

FRED lets you control for population actually! It does flatten the change a bit but it's still a bump: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Q8J6

[fred_is_fred]

Is that still true? I would guess net immigration is 0 or negative at this point.

[fellowniusmonk]

I don't understand how this chart can be true at all. Does this include ghost listings?

[zeroonetwothree]

It comes from surveys based on this criteria:

> JOLTS defines Job Openings as all positions that are open (not filled) on the last business day of the month. A job is "open" only if it meets all three of the following conditions:

1. A specific position exists and there is work available for that position. The position can be full-time or part-time, and it can be permanent, short-term, or seasonal, and

2. The job could start within 30 days, whether or not the establishment finds a suitable candidate during that time, and

3. There is active recruiting for workers from outside the establishment location that has the opening.

[rvz]

Very likely which is the point of the ghost jobs and gives the illusion that the OP is falling for. Companies (especially publicly traded ones) do not want analysts at banks or hedge funds using their careers page as a good / bad signal.

Therefore, it is cope.

[falloutx]

Arent a lot of job openings known to be resume collection bins and HRs keep them open so that company can say "Oh we created this many jobs but no was willing to work for us"

[jeffbee]

Thanks. It is very funny how young people perceive this market. Unemployment is basically lower than it has ever been and people are panicking. Prime age labor force participation rate near all-time record highs. The people are almost dangerously over-employed.

[NickC25]

I'm young-ish transitioning to middle age (36).

The job market is AWFUL for my generation, and pretty much always has been since we entered the workforce.

Unemployment might be low if you think that folks with advanced STEM degrees can go and get a part time gig at McDonald's.

If you look at meaningful employment - where one can make enough to live near where they work, save a bit, pay food/rent, and spend a bit for their leisure or health, well....no we are not over-employed. We are in a death spiral.

[xboxnolifes]

Because it measures open job listing. All of the job listing i've apply to and never hear back from still exist too. Take from that what you will.

[DrPimienta]

The government has spent decades figuring out ways to lie about this. Are you actually shocked? The number of men who can buy a home and have a stay-at-home-wife on a random job they got out of high school is nigh 0% when this used to be the norm.

[Ajakks]

Haha, you speak of ivory towers without even knowing so

In far more words this entire position is simply "let them eat cake" but without the excuse of a royal court distorting reality.

Willful ignorance is worse.

[esbranson]

Correct. The prime age labor force participation rate is 0.8% lower than the all-time record highest in recorded US history, January 1999.

[hackable_sand]

They're not