[thomasahle]

It took Andrew Wiles 7 years of intense work to solve Fermat's Last Theorem.

The METR institute predicts that the length of tasks AI agents can complete doubles every 7 months.

We should expect it to take until 2033 before AI solves Clay Institute-level problems with 50% reliability.

[kelseyfrog]

That's exactly why the Millennium Prize Problem Bench[1] was created.

1. https://mppbench.com/

[thomasahle]

That's amazing :D

[zozbot234]

There is an ongoing effort to formalize a modern, streamlined proof of FLT in Lean, with all the needed prereqs. It's estimated that it will take approx. 5 years, but perhaps AI will lead to some meaningful speedup.

[pfdietz]

What I'm hoping to see is high volume automated formalization of the math literature, with the goal of formalizing (or finding flaws in) the entire thing.

And once we have that formalized corpus, it's all set up as training data for moving forward.

[Davidzheng]

If you have a sufficiently strong verifier 1/100000 reliability is already enough

[thomasahle]

Sure, but then 50% reliability just becomes a matter of whether you can make a strong enough verifier.