[f33d5173]

My working theory is that the ai bubble is caused by trump. People are too uncertain to want to invest in most industries, but they have to put their money somewhere, so they put it in ai stocks. Since the supreme court is likely to rule trump's tariffs illegal in a week or so, this may lead to a stock market crash. As people reallocate their portfolios, they will sell their ai stocks, which will pop the bubble and cause a crash. Something to watch out for.

[JumpinJack_Cash]

I don't think so.

Remember the first time you wanted to buy a stock.

You used a product or a service that you liked immensely, realized it had a stock and wanted to be involved.

1 billion people are using AI, not dramatically changing their lives yet of course but for sure they go 'wow incredible I want to be part of this' when they make a video with Sora or generate a pamphlet without having to work

[f33d5173]

That's not why I bought stocks for the first time. I had extra money and wanted it to grow rather than sit around. I think the same is true of the majority of people.

I don't think we're disagreeing with each other in that we both think that ai will continue to be a successful industry, and furthermore that we both think that investors think the same. I'm simply hypothesizing an origin for the widely acknowledged bubble in ai stocks.

[hvb2]

> 1 billion people are using AI, not dramatically changing their lives yet of course but for sure they go 'wow incredible I want to be part of this'

Subtract the part that doesn't know they're using AI or when they do know have mixed experiences.

Then subtract the vast vast majority of people who don't have the money to invest.

[rsynnott]

So you’re hoping for the ai bubble to be saved by naive retail investors? I mean, that can’t last forever.

[altmanaltman]

Valid theory, and if you look at the prices of assets like gold, the reallocation is already happening. But I feel a near-term crash in AI stocks is just not coming unless we are headed towards catastrophic economic conditions. Lots of market forces are involved in AI now and even people selling stocks (or a major correction) will not pop the AI bubble since the major players have invested way too much cash to just let it go away at this point. (IMO)