[roadside_picnic]

I'm not a particularly big Gary Marcus fan, but I'm even less of a fan of the term "always".

I browsed back looking for posts of his that most obviously made predictions, and "GPT-5… now arriving Gate 8, Gate 9, Gate 10" make a few very clear predictions and was absolutely correct [0] about them.

This was in June 2024, and Marcus claims two major predictions:

- "As of today, I am more confident than ever that GPT-5 won’t land this year."

- "Gary Marcus is still betting that GPT-5 will continue to hallucinate and make a bunch of wacky errors, whenever it finally drops."

It would be over a year from his posting that article that GPT-5 would finally land, and his overall prediction that the result would be lack-luster was also spot on.

Again, I don't particularly care one way or another about Gary Marcus, but flat out dismissing his writing doesn't really hold up.

0. https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/gpt-5-now-arriving-gate-8-...

[ccapitalK]

He also posted https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/lets-be-honest-generative-..., which got flagged as low effort spam about 30 minutes ago. https://news.ycombinator.com./item?id=46605587