[fairity]

Words are cheap. I really wish there was a way to incentivize authors like this to put their money where their mouth is, before seeking attention for their ideas.

[twoodfin]

I’m guessing it’s hard to go short OpenAI without also going short a bunch of other companies riding the AI wave that aren’t led by Sam Altman?

Would love to hear how that could work.

[CodingJeebus]

Shorting a security means risking exponential losses if the stock you're shorting continues to increase in value. As the saying goes: the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

[gizajob]

Just short Nvidia. If the thing goes bang then that’ll be one of the big losers.

[ctoth]

Hmm. Maybe he might do... a bet!

And then maybe he might ... change the bet! when he was about to lose?

Maybe!

Who's to say, really? Certainly not me! I'm just a neural network!

[miltonlost]

What's your complaint about this article? I wish there were a way to incentivize comments to put effort into specific criticism, before seeking attention for their ideas.

[jbreckmckye]

I'm not aiming this at GP specifically, but there seems to be a culture around gen AI that the burden of proof is on sceptics, not the people claiming we're about to invent God

[everly]

Gary is an insufferable blowhard but he's had skin the AI game for awhile. I believe he sold an AI startup to Uber back in the 2010s.

Many of his criticisms of OpenAI and LLMs have been apt.

[EA-3167]

It's possible to notice a trend while still having the wit to realize you can't precisely time that trend well enough to profit from it. Another example might be, "Trump is increasingly old, feeble, and incapable of doing his job... but I'm not sure how that will translate into how long he's able to keep the job. It's possible that he could be a vegetable at some point and still POTUS."

Demanding that people gamble with their often limited finances to prove a point orthogonal to the one they're actually making feels disingenuous and dismissive to me.

[danielmarkbruce]

It's not orthogonal. And you will find people will change their mind when forced to put a little money on the line.

"Team X is definitely winning, I'm certain". "So you'll offer me 1000-1 on the opponent?". "No". "6-1?", "No". They often realize they are about 65% certain at some point. And they often aren't being hyperbolic, they are just not thinking clearly.