I don't think there's really clear evidence. They're geopolitical adversaries, but Iran's ability to project force has been decimated over the last 2 years, to the point where Israel literally controls Iran's airspace. They have not much more to gain from further injury to the Iranian regime, and something to lose from regional instability.
(I don't think this analysis speaks well of Israel, for what it's worth, but I don't really think about countries in those terms anyways.)
What is the point of attacking a TV station and a prison, if not for regime change?
For the record, I agree with you that Israel has little "to gain from further injury to the Iranian regime, and something to lose from regional instability." I just don't think the people in charge of Israel see it that way. I think they feel they have a short window to achieve certain objectives they've wanted for a long time while Trump is in power).
And I think they prefer to have regional instability - a bunch of weaker chess pieces that they can play against each other - like how they supported both sides of the Iran-Iraq war in the 80's, funded Hamas, ISIS, and ISIS-derived militias to achieve short-term goals etc..
In case you didn't know about the last few points, here are some links:
“Anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state has to support bolstering Hamas and transferring money to Hamas,” Netanyahu told his Likud party’s Knesset members in March 2019. “This is part of our strategy"
https://x.com/haaretzcom/status/1711329340804186619?s=46&t=s...
By the way, regarding "Israel literally controls Iran's airspace" - Iran don't really have an air force. Their deliberate strategy given their limited resources was to focus on a ballistic missile program and all things considered this has worked ok. By the way, Israel failed to deliver a knock-out blow to Iran even when they had the element of surprise with an attack that was planned 18 months in advance (drafted during the Biden administration) yet somehow Iran was able to begin answering within 48 hours and do enough damage (which required penetrating anti-missile defenses of several major powers) that Israel agreed to a cease-fire.
After the 12-day war, China immediately sold Iran a number of J10-C fighters and air defense options, but it takes months to deliver/train all of them. So Israel is incentivized to deliver a knock-out blow to Iran before this window closes as well. In other words, Israel's war is the 'cause its own necessity' (1).
tptacek|1 month ago
(I don't think this analysis speaks well of Israel, for what it's worth, but I don't really think about countries in those terms anyways.)
pazimzadeh|1 month ago
Netanyahu Urges Iranians To Rise Up Against Their Leaders https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcbYzBImi4c
Israel hopes for regime change in Iran https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2026/01/11/...
Israel strikes state-run Iranian TV during live broadcast after Iranian missiles kill 8 in Israel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0RkR46Wlv6g
Inside Israel's attack on Iran's Evin Prison https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czd0e23j9q8o
What is the point of attacking a TV station and a prison, if not for regime change?
For the record, I agree with you that Israel has little "to gain from further injury to the Iranian regime, and something to lose from regional instability." I just don't think the people in charge of Israel see it that way. I think they feel they have a short window to achieve certain objectives they've wanted for a long time while Trump is in power).
And I think they prefer to have regional instability - a bunch of weaker chess pieces that they can play against each other - like how they supported both sides of the Iran-Iraq war in the 80's, funded Hamas, ISIS, and ISIS-derived militias to achieve short-term goals etc..
In case you didn't know about the last few points, here are some links:
Netanyahu defends arming Palestinian clans accused of ties with jihadist groups https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/06/netanyahu-defe...
Report: Israel treating al-Qaida fighters wounded in Syria civil war https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/report-israel-treating-al-...
Ex-Mossad head on Israel medical aid to al-Nusra Front - UpFront https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vweHtxqnh-Y
The Israeli Army Is Allowing Gangs in Gaza to Loot Aid Trucks and Extort Protection Fees From Drivers https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-11-11/ty-article/.p...
Gangs looting Gaza aid operate in areas under Israeli control, aid groups say https://archive.is/20250606105700/https://www.washingtonpost...
“Anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state has to support bolstering Hamas and transferring money to Hamas,” Netanyahu told his Likud party’s Knesset members in March 2019. “This is part of our strategy" https://x.com/haaretzcom/status/1711329340804186619?s=46&t=s...
A Brief History of the Netanyahu-Hamas Alliance https://archive.ph/qHya5
By the way, regarding "Israel literally controls Iran's airspace" - Iran don't really have an air force. Their deliberate strategy given their limited resources was to focus on a ballistic missile program and all things considered this has worked ok. By the way, Israel failed to deliver a knock-out blow to Iran even when they had the element of surprise with an attack that was planned 18 months in advance (drafted during the Biden administration) yet somehow Iran was able to begin answering within 48 hours and do enough damage (which required penetrating anti-missile defenses of several major powers) that Israel agreed to a cease-fire.
After the 12-day war, China immediately sold Iran a number of J10-C fighters and air defense options, but it takes months to deliver/train all of them. So Israel is incentivized to deliver a knock-out blow to Iran before this window closes as well. In other words, Israel's war is the 'cause its own necessity' (1).
1 - The Acquired Immune System-A Vantage from Beneath https://www.cell.com/immunity/fulltext/S1074-7613(04)00307-3