Heating from gas is quite peaky (morning and evening heating cycles), whereas heat pumps are best when run low-and-steady.
Assuming 2/3 of residential heat demand transitions to heat pumps, and assuming an optimistic COP of 3 in the worst weather (highest flow temperatures, lowest air temperatures ... perhaps more like 2.5), then the power required to heat this fraction of houses is 2/3 / 3 = 2/9 of the mean gas demand. [0] linked report figure 1 shows a (smoothed by eyeball) demand of around 140GW "local gas demand" during the Beast from the East. This implies heat pumps would take over 31GW to power, which is more like 60% of the current UK electricity supply.
It's not apples-to-apples though due to the difference in heating efficiency. If you use N kWh to heat your house with a gas boiler, you'll use N/P to heat it with a heat pump. P is something like 3 or 4, depending on various factors (and who you ask).
youngtaff|1 month ago
ViewTrick1002|1 month ago
chickenbig|1 month ago
Assuming 2/3 of residential heat demand transitions to heat pumps, and assuming an optimistic COP of 3 in the worst weather (highest flow temperatures, lowest air temperatures ... perhaps more like 2.5), then the power required to heat this fraction of houses is 2/3 / 3 = 2/9 of the mean gas demand. [0] linked report figure 1 shows a (smoothed by eyeball) demand of around 140GW "local gas demand" during the Beast from the East. This implies heat pumps would take over 31GW to power, which is more like 60% of the current UK electricity supply.
[0] https://ukerc.ac.uk/publications/local-gas-demand-vs-electri...
blitzar|1 month ago
mjd89|1 month ago
thebruce87m|1 month ago
9,000kWh for electricity vs 16,000kWh for gas
That’s with charging an EV too.
philipallstar|1 month ago