[apples_oranges]

I wonder how likely Trumps assumption, that Russia or China will take it if he doesn't, is..

[sorokod]

Take it? You mean go to war with NATO over Greenland?

[skirge]

impossible, like war for Cyprus

[fsh]

Zero. Denmark belongs to the EU and NATO, and Greenland has always had a significant NATO military presence to deter any possible threat.

[hypeatei]

We already have military bases there and I'm sure Greenland wouldn't have cared if we asked for a few more. This is all to stroke someone's ego and get their name in a history book.

[V__]

1. The U.S. has multiple bases in Greenland. Denmark, and NATO are also present.

2. Russia can't even expand their presence to Ukraine (not a NATO memeber).

3. China has no access.

So, 0%.

[ochrist]

Currently USA only has one base left: Pituffik Space Base (previously called Thule Air Base). They used to have about 17 bases and several thousand military personnel, but now it's down to about 200. If USA wanted it, they could establish all the bases they wanted and send more people, but they chose to cut down on military presence over the past years. Source: Have worked on that last base several years ago. Also check wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pituffik_Space_Base

[mindcrash]

They do not really care until the United States takes Greenland. Or NATO outright attacks Russia. Then they do care.

Because controlling Greenland means whoever has it gets excessive control over the Arctic Sea. And both parties, but especially Russia, do not want a party like the United States to have this amount of control given the Arctic is in their backyard.

[actionfromafar]

That sounds reasonable but it's not IMHO. What kind of control is that?

The US had military bases in Greenland when Soviet nukes had to be delivered with bombers flying over Greenland.

When ICBMs became a thing, those bases weren't as important anymore.

[scotty79]

In modern world if you want to estimate validity of the message it's a better heuristic to consider the source than the message itself.

[iamcalledrob]

Today, the US can defend Greenland as part of NATO, and would have the support of the other NATO nations.

[i80and]

About 0%. China really has no serious interest in Greenland, and Russia isn't going to trigger direct confrontation with NATO. At least, unless NATO splinters, which is looking somewhat likely now with this foolish US administration.

Russia and China are just made-up excuses for Trump to do what he wants to do: steal territory, at gunpoint if needed.

[AnimalMuppet]

Lets just say that Russia or China does some surprise attack and lands a bunch of troops in Greenland.

OK, great, they've got troops in Greenland. Now they have to keep them supplied. How are they going to do that? Well, either through the air or by sea.

Does either have a navy that can do that? No. Does either have an air force that can do that against US opposition? No.

So it's really unlikely. Even if China or Russia were stupid enough to do that, they could never hold it.

Now, perhaps the more interesting question: How likely does Trump think it is? Does he think it's real, despite the absurd impossibility of it? Or is he just saying fact-free stuff that he hopes some people will believe?