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Your claim doesn’t seem as definitive as you present it, for China and US at least.

Comparing China and the US it seems like theres a 150 billion ton difference in the cumulative emissions.

Most recent data shows China emitting ~8 billion tons more than the US annually. At that rate that’s about ~20yrs until they flip.

China’s emissions appear to increasing exponentially YoY whereas the US has seen reductions in recent years. That makes it seem like they’d flip in less than 20 years.

Obviously, the emissions on a per capita basis are still nowhere close.

From: https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions