[kbos87]

...but many people in positions where they can start a war or cause some other highly visible event of any sort probably will start turning to Polymarket to make money in the course of their work

[fartfeatures]

Which makes the prediction market more accurate.

[nkrisc]

Until the tail starts wagging the dog.

[xpe]

As long as we realize that prediction market accuracy is not all we care about.

See also: one can have very high economic efficiency with very high inequality, war, disease, misery, etc.

[intended]

Eh… sort of? In a sense, they become less accurate, because the prediction market is the causative event, not an independent observer.

[snowmobile]

Not really, for the same reason entrapment isn't usually seen as an accurate way to gather information for law enforcement. See also Goodhart's law and overfitting.

[pjc50]

"You provide the gambling, I'll provide the war"