[latency-guy2]

Why would the opposing side of that exact same bet allow themselves to be fleeced of all that money for free?

[gpm]

You're asking why someone hiring a hitman would be willing to part with their money?

Because that's what money is for, to purchase things, like hitmen (apparently).

[latency-guy2]

OK so its much a shallower thought than I anticipated.

Why go through the "prediction market" at all then? The hitman still killed someone, payments are not anonymous in this market, and its certainly not clean. Further, you share the pot with however many are involved, proportional to the allotted bets on each side and presuming binary prediction. And if the winds change on the market for the bet proportional to the "hitman's" side, you lose out on dollars that would otherwise be paid to you (the hitman).

And it'd be so easy to stiff the hitman just by equalizing the positions by timing it.

All that risk for something that's far simpler to just pay directly?

[intended]

Asymmetry of information. Fixed bets depend entirely on a small enough group with the ability to influence the outcome, keeping their mouths shut.

[dragonwriter]

The opposing side is getting paid, not getting fleeced.