[pgodzin]

There are much better ways to tell if a prediction market is well calibrated than a single anecdote.

And if it works so poorly, there's a lot of easy money to be made.

[shimman]

But this isn't a prediction market... those are highly regulated. This is just making money off of insider info. So yeah, not only does it work poorly it's entire reason for existing is to help people get richer while fucking over others.