[digdugdirk]

That's not how complex systems work though? You say that these tools feel "symmetric" for defenders to use, but having both sides use the same tools immediately puts the defenders at a disadvantage in the "asymmetric warfare" context.

The defensive side needs everything to go right, all the time. The offensive side only needs something to go wrong once.

[Vetch]

I'm not sure that's the fully right mental model to use. They're not searching randomly with unbounded compute nor selecting from arbitrary strategies in this example. They are both using LLMs and likely the same ones, so will likely uncover overlapping possible solutions. Avoiding that depends on exploring more of the tail of the highly correlated to possibly identical distributions.

It's a subtle difference from what you said in that it's not like everything has to go right in a sequence for the defensive side, defenders just have to hope they committed enough into searching such that the offensive side has a significantly lowered chance of finding solutions they did not. Both the attackers and defenders are attacking a target program and sampling the same distribution for attacks, it's just that the defender is also iterating on patching any found exploits until their budget is exhausted.

[psychoslave]

That really depends of the offensive class. If that is a single group with some agenda, then that's just everyone spending much resources on creating solution no permanent actor in the game want actually to escalate into, just show they have the tools and skills.

It's probably more worrying as you get script kiddies on steroids which can spawn all around with same mindset as even the dumbest significant geopolitical actor out there.