[coredev_]

I'm a bit baffled by this - are you saying that you can't identify a single market in the whole world that is worth to invest in & stable except US?

Also I don't see that EU as a whole is on a downward trajectory, there are a lot of areas that are super strong, one being the defence industry.

US on the other hand - who wants to invest in or trade with them when they treat the rest of the world (including close friends) as shit.

[kasey_junk]

You can’t invest in EU sovereign debt though, only the constituent countries.

The problem is that US treasuries have a bunch of features that can’t be replicated because of the size of the US economy. The only choice that comes close is China whose bonds are too illiberal to trade the same (and China has no interest in liberalizing them).

[jacquesm]

You can actually, but the volumes are too low to absorb a massive sell-off of US treasury paper.

[loeg]

Not "worth to invest in," just the higher criteria GP asked for: "a more politically stable nation state." It has to be strictly more stable than the US, not just investable.

[piva00]

Switzerland is usually the gold standard for politically stable.

[kavalg]

In the context of sovereign debt, yes. I don't even feel that that the US is stable enough. Of course, everyone sees the world through their own eyes, but in my world, the EU has been going down post-covid in terms of e.g. purchasing power, industrial base, business opportunities for the small/medium business. The defense industry is strong, because it is currently needed and funded, but how long can that be sustained?

[tick_tock_tick]

I mean there is a second almost if not more critical requirement which is has a big enough and liquid enough debt market to function like US treasuries.

> Also I don't see that EU as a whole is on a downward trajectory

That's an extremely contrarian take that you can't justify with EU defense did good for once in it's life. Maybe we'll see something from the EU but remember the USA and EU GDP were basically identical 10 years ago now the US is 50% bigger.

Seriously in 2008 the EU had a bigger GDP and now is a fraction of the USA and member nations have done basically nothing to fix the core issues that left them behind.

> US on the other hand - who wants to invest in or trade with them when they treat the rest of the world (including close friends) as shit.

Sadly it doesn't really matter about a "want" it's a need at this point unless people are going to cut off their arm and collapse their own economies they don't really get a choice.

[coredev_]

Fair, but a bit slower growth than US is not a downward trajectory. Also there is currency effects involved.

Isn't US injecting a lot of loaned money into the economy in a rate that might not be sustainable long term? Their debt-to-GDP ratio is way higher than EUs?