1 in 35,385 US immigrants are in MN+criminal+undocumented

[QuantumGood]

I dug around in the data the U.S. had prior to sending ICE into Minnesota:

Out of every 35,385 immigrants living in the United States, approximately 1 is an undocumented immigrant with a criminal record who lives in Minnesota. Put another way: Minnesota's criminal undocumented immigrant population represents 0.0028% of all foreign-born residents in America.

Step 1: Start with Minnesota's undocumented population • 130,000 undocumented immigrants live in Minnesota (Pew Research, 2023)

Step 2: Apply criminal conviction rate • Using 1% criminal rate: 130,000 × 0.01 = 1,300 individuals

Step 3: Compare to total U.S. immigrant population • 46,000,000 total foreign-born residents in the U.S. • 1,300 ÷ 46,000,000 = 0.0028% = 1 in 35,385

The Range of Estimates • Conservative Estimate: 1 in 45,365 (0.0022%) Uses the empirically measured 0.78% conviction rate from peer-reviewed CATO Institute research on Texas undocumented immigrants.

~1,014 criminal undocumented immigrants in MN • Moderate Estimate: 1 in 35,385 (0.0028%) Uses a 1% criminal rate, which aligns with border apprehension data.

~1,300 criminal undocumented immigrants in MN • Liberal Estimate: 1 in 32,168 (0.0031%) Uses the 2024 border apprehension rate of 1.1% for those with prior criminal convictions.

~1,430 criminal undocumented immigrants in MN

Source References Pew Research - National undocumented population (14M): https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2025/08/21/u-s-unauthorized-immigrant-population-reached-a-record-14-million-in-2023 Pew/Axios - Minnesota undocumented population (130k): https://www.axios.com/local/twin-cities/2025/08/25/minnesota-unauthorized-immigrant-population-pew USAFacts - Border criminal conviction rates (~1%): https://usafacts.org/answers/how-many-people-apprehended-at-us-borders-have-a-prior-criminal-conviction/country/united-states/ CATO Institute - Conviction rate research (0.78%): https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/2020-10/working-paper-60.pdf Migration Policy Institute - Total U.S. foreign-born (46M): https://www.migrationpolicy.org/content/immigrants-and-crime USAFacts - Minnesota immigrant data: https://usafacts.org/answers/how-many-immigrants-are-in-the-us/state/minnesota/

Bottom line: Depending on which criminal rate you use, Minnesota's criminal undocumented immigrant population represents between 1 in 32,000 and 1 in 45,000 of all immigrants living in America.

[bigyabai]

What are we supposed to glean from this? There's no statistic that can reframe or justify lethal systemic failure. Sans additional context, this post reads like apologia for a faulty (and fixable!) system.

[zahlman]

This methodology is completely bogus. You cannot simply assume independent variables and do this multiplication.

But it also doesn't particularly change anything.

[giardini]

No. Every undocumented immigrant in Minnesota is a criminal.

Entering the USA unlawfully is, not surprisingly, illegal and a crime.

[gflyer]

If finding undocumented immigrants was truly the goal, ICE would be heavily focused on Texas and Florida, where the number of them is respectively over 25 and 15 times higher. But that’s not why ICE is in Minnesota, and we all know it.

[almosthere]

I think the jist is that in MN the criminal rate may be a lot higher because of fraud.

[tacostakohashi]

Yep, it's fairly difficult to imagine that Minnesota in the winter is overrun with problematic illegal migrants.

It's almost as if... there is some other rationale at play for sending ICE there?