[kipchak]

I agree the dollar is uniquely successful, but the Pound ended convertibility in 1931, and limped as a reserve currency into the 70s. While not a reserve currency, another example is Chinese currencies like the second zhiyuanchao going off silver convertibility, which lasted for a bit over 50 years.[1]

When the Dutch for example did try to go off a metallic standard it was essentially a last ditch effort as they were completely broke. The US on the other hand had the advantage of still controlling global trade/it's military, liquid markets and the petrodollar system. The dollar's floating exchange rate also served as a release valve, allowing devaluation to occur gradually over the decade that followed versus all at once.

Re a dollar collapse I see a gradual shift towards a more multipolar world with no clear singular reserve currency and no currency which eclipses the dollar as more likely than a collapse or eclipse. For example where the Americas still primarily transact in dollars, the Yuan becomes an increasing percentage of belt and road trade, and the Euro in it's sphere.

[1]https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/rise-and-fall-paper-money-yua...

[jollyllama]

Thanks for a good reply with lots of interesting historical examples. I think your conclusion is sound. I suppose this is a likely counter scenario to my assertion that nothing will replace the dollar, but rather that it will be partially replaced by a little bit of everything over the course of decades.

[kipchak]

Likewise, it's always good to think through different perspectives. For what it's worth there are definitely people who think it will take much longer than most expect, due to for example the creation and growth of US Stablecoins, China wanting to be an exporter more than wanting the Yuan to be a reserve currency, or greater relative weakness in other countries for example.