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benlivengood | 1 month ago

I dunno, GPT-OSS and Llama and QWEN and any half dozen of other large open-weight models?

I really can't imagine OpenAI or Anthropic turning off inference for a model that my workplace is happy to spend >$200*person/month on. Google still has piles of cash and no reason to turn off Gemini.

The thing is, if inference is truly heavily subsidized (I don't think it is, because places like OpenRouter charge less than the big players for proportionally smaller models) then we'd probably happily pay >$500 a month for the current frontier models if everyone gave up on training new models because of some oddball scaling limit.

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crimsoneer|1 month ago

Yeah, this is silly. Plenty of companies are hosting their own now, sometimes on prem. This isn't going away

iLoveOncall|1 month ago

> we'd probably happily pay >$500 a month for the current frontier models

Try $5,000. OpenAI loses hundreds of billions a year, they need a 100x, not 2x.

gingersnap|1 month ago

But they are not losing 100x on inference on high paying customers. Their biggest loss is free user + training/development cost

weirdmantis69|1 month ago

Why lie on a site where people know things.

filoleg|1 month ago

OpenAI loses hundreds of billions a year on inference? I strongly doubt it

ndriscoll|1 month ago

$60k/yr still seems like a good deal for the productivity multiplier you get on an experienced engineer costing several times that. Actually, I'm fairly certain that some optimizations I had codex do this week would already pay for that from being able to scale down pod resource requirements, and that's just from me telling it to profile our code and find high ROI things to fix, taking only part of my focus away from planned work.

Another data point: I gave codex a 2 sentence description (being intentionally vague and actually slightly misleading) of a problem that another engineer spent ~1 week root causing a couple months ago, and it found the bug in 3.5 minutes.

These things were hot garbage right up until the second they weren't. Suddenly, they are immensely useful. That said, I doubt my usage costs anywhere near that much to openai.