[nxtfari]

My guess is Tesla is desperately in need of Q1 revenue and they want people to scarcity buy FSD lifetime @ $8K. Otherwise the strategy doesn’t make any sense. They’re saying FSD and basic Autopilot will go behind subscription and that subscription prices are expected to go up. Basically laying out that they’re planning to lock you into a subscription and then price gouge. It’s so transparent that I think the point isn’t actually the gouge but to make that threat move lifetime FSD sales.

[scottyah]

1. There's a CA lawsuit against the FSD name, Tesla has to fix it by Feb 14th (the last day FSD is being sold). I wonder if it'll just be a rebrand for the new service. https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/news-and-media/news-releases/d...

2. Elon's Trillion Dollar Payout is tied to a certain number of FSD Subscriptions.

3. Some consumers were sold that they would get hardware upgrades for FSD. I'm pretty sure Tesla would like to minimize that, and I expect incentives for those people to purchase new vehicle without FSD.

4. Subscriptions drive our economy, I don't know the details but it seems like every company wants subscriptions over one time purchases.

I honestly don't think they want a lot of people with lifetime FSD, it's disappearing without a lot of news.

[gruez]

>2. Elon's Trillion Dollar Payout is tied to a certain number of FSD Subscriptions.

That wording is misleading because so far as I can tell, that payout is in tranches, and the FSD subscriptions milestone is only tied to one of the tranches. Therefore it's not as if 1 trillion dollars is riding on whether he gets enough FSD subscriptions, only 1/12th of that.

https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001318605/0...

[palata]

> 2. Elon's Trillion Dollar Payout is tied to a certain number of FSD Subscriptions.

That explains things.

[bagacrap]

The subscription model seems to profit off of inertia/inaction/forgetfulness/laziness.

There's a whole app called rocket money to fight back against the subscription model by helping you find and cancel subs. I've never used it and don't plan to but it would be cool if it helped push back against the modern shift towards subscription-everything.

Although if we're talking about software or anything else that could easily be one-time/up-front or ongoing, then I guess there's a case to be made that monthly subscriptions let you try before you buy, like rental skis. In that sense they are user friendly.

[nxtfari]

Good context, thank you. I think this changes my view, you’re more likely right.

[johnnyanmac]

4. The details are pretty straightforward. Continual passive income is more reliable than the boom bust cycles that is buying cars. The latter requires you finding more and more customers. The former is extracting more money from an assumedly commuted customer.

In theory, subscriptions are cheaper for users as well when done right and it works better with how people are compensated. But as usual, greed consumes all and if everything is a bill, that's more ways to eat at your long term wealth.

In other words: you will own nothing and like it.

[lotsofpulp]

> 4. Subscriptions drive our economy, I don't know the details but it seems like every company wants subscriptions over one time purchases.

Every person I know wants a subscription, too. Who wouldn’t want a nest egg throwing off passive income?

[BeetleB]

> Otherwise the strategy doesn’t make any sense.

The price is high, but it's not unique to Tesla. Ford has Blue Cruise, which is about $500/year.

People can, however, opt for openpilot/comma (https://comma.ai/openpilot), which random Youtubers tested and say it's about as good as Tesla's FSD, but has a simple one time fee of $1K But whether you want to trust open source is up to you.

[AwGeezeRick]

Comma/OpenPilot is actually amazing. One of my cars is a Tesla Model 3 Performance 2025 and I love it, FSD on HW4 is great. Super fast.

I also have a Lexus ES 2025, I bought the Comma for it and it works better than Tesla’s AutoPilot (the thing they’re taking away new new Teslas). AutoPilot isn’t great to begin with, I kinda always hated it. But I do like cars that can drive themselves when I have long road trips and wanna be able to look at work. Comma makes that completely doable on the Lexus.

[nxtfari]

I’m a fan of what Comma is working on, but to say it’s about as good as FSD (!!) would be a big misunderstanding of both products. Comma is L2 assist: basically in a lane it will keep the lane, and if a car stops ahead it will stop. It’s equivalent to Tesla standard Autopilot, but FSD is an L3 bordering on L4 system. It navigates traffic lights, intersections, indicating, merging, etc none of which Comma can do. Still good product though.

[rootusrootus]

My guess is they made FSD subscriptions a requirement for Elon's big compensation package.

[kotaKat]

10 million active subscriptions. It’s one of the lower targets to meet.

[thefourthchime]

Tesla is going to stop selling FSD outright on Feb 14th. It will be subscription only.

[nunez]

Only in this radically pro-business administration would brazenly anti-consumer behavior like this be acceptable.