[throwfaraway4]

> AI will replace every humans in performing every cognitive task

Maybe? I guess the better question is "when?"

>unless you believe that there is something about biology that makes it categorically better for certain kinds of computation.There's no reason to believe that's the case.

How about the fact that we don't actually know enough about the human mind to arrive at this conclusion? (yet)

[steve1977]

> Maybe? I guess the better question is "when?"

And also at what cost and at what scale?

Will we be able to construct a supercomputer/datacenter that can match or exceed human intelligence? Possibly, even probaby.

But that would only be one instance of such an AGI then and it would be very expensive. IMHO it will take a long time to produce something like that as a commodity.

[red75prime]

So far it looks like AI will go the same road as other technological analogues of biological systems: not a self-contained unit (powered by currently technologically unreachable nano-mechanisms), but infrastructure that produces and maintains specialized units.

A tractor can't reproduce or repair itself, but it is better than a horse for farming. A self-driving car can't learn by itself, but a datacenter can use its data to train a new version of the car software. A humanoid robot by itself might not be flexible enough to count as AGI, but it can defer some problems to an exascale datacenter.

[pixl97]

Remember when a digital computer was not a device, but the entire floor of a building?

We will be able to construct a datacenter that exceeds human intelligence. And every year after that the size of the datacenter will get smaller for the same intelligence output. Eventually it will be a rack. Then a single server. Then something that is portable.