[philipkglass]

Some people say that human jobs will move to the physical world, which avoids the whole category of “cognitive labor” where AI is progressing so rapidly. I am not sure how safe this is, either. A lot of physical labor is already being done by machines (e.g., manufacturing) or will soon be done by machines (e.g., driving). Also, sufficiently powerful AI will be able to accelerate the development of robots, and then control those robots in the physical world.

I would like to believe that we're about to see a rapid proliferation of useful robots, but progress has been much slower with the physical world than with information-based tasks.

After the DARPA Urban Challenge of 2007, I thought that massive job losses from robotic car and truck drivers were only 5-8 years away. But in 2026 in the US only Waymo has highly autonomous driving systems, in only a few markets. Most embodied tasks don't even have that modest level of demonstrated capability.

I actually worry that legislators -- people with white collar jobs -- will overestimate the near-term capabilities of AI to handle jobs in general, and prematurely build solutions for a "world without work" that will be slow to arrive. (Like starting UBI too early instead of boosting job retraining, leaving health care systems understaffed for hands-on work.)

[bandrami]

> But in 2026 in the US only Waymo has highly autonomous driving systems, in only a few markets

10 years ago I predicted that the uptake of autonomous vehicles would be slow but that it would be because of labor protections. While those have had some impact, that isn't really the issue: it's that the cars just don't quite work well enough yet and that last ~20% of function turns out to be both incredibly difficult and incredibly important.

[cal_dent]

One thing that I've not quite been able to sort of get my head around about the whole AI and future of work thing ss the view around work in the physical world being safe. I don't particularly buy the rationale and not from the position of robots are going to do the work. I don't know much about robots really but from what I've seen from the more viral stuff that breaks through to mainstream internet from time to time, it still feels that we're some way out.

But that feels like the least of the worries to me. There seems to be an implicit assumption that those physical lines of work don't get eroded by the higher proportion of able bodied people who are suddenly unemployable. Yes there is some training required etc. but the barriers to entry aren't so high that in the shortish to medium term you don’t see more people gravitating to those industries and competing wages further down to not make then sustainable employment long term. I'd even think that having LLMs that can recognise photos or understand fuzzily explain questions about some blue collar skills many have forgotten actually reduces the barrier even more