[akurilin]

It's perhaps a little reminiscent of stock picking. Everybody wants the best deal they can get away with, everybody wants to get lucky, occasionally you find alpha with "one weird trick", but it turns out you just got lucky, and you regress to the mean eventually.

[godelski]

I think a stock picking analogy is good, but you captured wrong. Most of your portfolio should be status quo but most of your growth will come from the risky investments you took a chance on.

In a noisy environment you can't rely on strategy. Luck is necessary. Therefore risk is necessary