Relevant, I would definitely be sleeping uneasy if I was at “Open”AI.
Some insist that Chinese models are a few generations behind, how many probably depends more on patriotism rather than fact.
Those people typically also insist that Chinese models are just distillations and often neglect to see how many of these companies contribute to the theory of designing efficient and capable models.
It is somehow thought that they will always trail US models.
Well. i would say look at recent history. China worked up the ladder of manufacturing from simple, bad stuff to highly complex things - exactly what westerners then claimed they’d never be able to.
Then as that was conquered, westerners comforted themselves by insisting that China could copy, but trail-blazing would always still be our thing. Well, Baidu and Alibaba face scaling issues few western companies do and BYD seems to match Tesla or VW just fine.
I am unsure why anyone would think US models are destined to remain in the lead forever.
At “best”, I see a fragmented world where each major region (yes also Europe) will eventually have their own models - exactly because no one wants to give any competitive power a chokehold over their society. But beyond that, models will largely be so good that this “generation”/universal superiority idea becomes completely obsolete.
Thing is, China has the same problems as OAI. Just looks at these two startups, they are one of the first LLM corpos where we have some actual numbers from accounting and not BS from marketing department or Sam's xitter. The situation looks dire.
A few months ago we were hearing that it was game over because of Deepseek. Today it has a mind share close to zero on the developed world. Being 90% as good (which Deepseek isn't) doesn't cut it...
US models might not be "destined" to stay in the lead, but I see no reason to believe that won't at the moment.
As a retail investor mostly invested into broad ETFs (All World), is there any way I can get short exposure to OpenAI? Being short Oracle/Nvidia/Microsoft?
Shorting OIA, or really any big company, is like trying to stop a train which is on fire by standing in front of it. Yes, it is on fire and won't last long, but it will still crush any small player trying to overpower whole corrupt system.
Keep in mind that the "news cycle" isn't of much use in this field. For 2025, almost all "mainstream" media was dead wrong in their takes. Remember the Deepseek r1 craze in feb25? Where nvda is dead, oai is dead and so on? Yeah... that went well. Remember all the "no more data" craze? Despite no actual researcher worth their salt saying it or even hinting at it? Remember the "hitting walls" rhetoric?
The media has been "social media'd", with everything being driven by algorithms, everything being about capturing attention at the cost of everything else. Negativity sells. FUD sells.
pseudony|1 month ago
Some insist that Chinese models are a few generations behind, how many probably depends more on patriotism rather than fact.
Those people typically also insist that Chinese models are just distillations and often neglect to see how many of these companies contribute to the theory of designing efficient and capable models. It is somehow thought that they will always trail US models.
Well. i would say look at recent history. China worked up the ladder of manufacturing from simple, bad stuff to highly complex things - exactly what westerners then claimed they’d never be able to. Then as that was conquered, westerners comforted themselves by insisting that China could copy, but trail-blazing would always still be our thing. Well, Baidu and Alibaba face scaling issues few western companies do and BYD seems to match Tesla or VW just fine.
I am unsure why anyone would think US models are destined to remain in the lead forever.
At “best”, I see a fragmented world where each major region (yes also Europe) will eventually have their own models - exactly because no one wants to give any competitive power a chokehold over their society. But beyond that, models will largely be so good that this “generation”/universal superiority idea becomes completely obsolete.
Yizahi|1 month ago
https://imgshare.cc/wzw6jzm5
glimshe|1 month ago
US models might not be "destined" to stay in the lead, but I see no reason to believe that won't at the moment.
c-fe|1 month ago
Yizahi|1 month ago
fauigerzigerk|1 month ago
https://polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap
trickster_|1 month ago
helsinkiandrew|1 month ago
If OpenAI is worth $5B, 4% of MSFT market Cap is Open AI.
ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX) holding is 7.2% of its total but also has xAI, Anthropic and lots of other AI
https://www.ark-funds.com/funds/arkvx#hold
OpenAI going bust might be a shock to shareprices of publicly traded companies like Oracle, CoreWeave, Softbank and the like
EDIT: obviously if OpenAI is worth $500B, not 5
unknown|1 month ago
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unknown|1 month ago
[deleted]
trickster_|1 month ago
NitpickLawyer|1 month ago
The media has been "social media'd", with everything being driven by algorithms, everything being about capturing attention at the cost of everything else. Negativity sells. FUD sells.
9cb14c1ec0|1 month ago
keyle|1 month ago
tsoukase|1 month ago
maxglute|1 month ago
Will it be in time to recoop capex.