[wesammikhail]

You can be directionally right but still lose a whole lot of money as an investor for decades on end even when you're right about the eventual outcome. Predicting future outcomes is orders of magnitude easier than predicting the exact moment/timing. After all, "markets can stay irrational for far longer than you can stay solvent".

This is why Burry, schiff, and a bunch of others keep predicting a collapse for decades on end. They're directionally right, they see a pattern but cant seem to time it right.

My prediction: I think this clusterfuck will keep going until

1. Unbearable irrationality: The US owes more money than there is money in the whole world. Measured using something like global M1 or M2 or something of that nature. Basically the system will need to reach a level of irrationality that even its biggest defenders can't cope with. OR,

2. Demographics: Most boomers die of old age after raiding whatever remains of the treasury.

Coincidentally, if my quick math is right, both of these scenarios are very likely to coincide within the next ~10 years or so. So make of that what you want...

[fuzzfactor]

Most boomers will have died of old age but it won't make much economic difference because they're overwhelmingly poor.

Treasury's been broke for a while, their whole life in fact.

Now a small fraction are so well off that there will be some sizable inheritances to be passed down, and that's kind of a crap-shoot as to how much of that might lead to any economic stimulus.

Good call otherwise, 10 years or less sounds about right.