Google and Microsoft will obviously remain. I have a hard time envisioning that OpenAI or Anthropic will go under - especially Anthropic, who are reportedly raking in billions from Claude subscriptions.
Just from my armchair predictions, it's not really any of the juggernauts who have to worry, but rather the many companies springing up to try SaaS offerings with LLMs at the core. A bubble pop there could certainly cause some strife, but I'm just not seeing the mechanism by which these too-big-to-fail tech companies and the heavily invested "frontier AI companies" are going to suddenly cease to exist.
I think the dotcom bubble is a fairly apt metaphor in the key sense that the web didn't go anywhere - just a lot of small players lost their tickets on the gravy train. "Big tech" as it existed at the time of the bubble pop trundled along and continued making gobs of money.
Mozilla is probably doomed in the long term. I think they're in the exact same boar as Microsoft, and wholly lack the self-reflection required to turn the ship around.
Firefox will continue to languish while Mozilla execs receive 8-figure bonuses until there's nothing left to extract.
OpenAI and Anthropic are bleeding money and both need hundreds of billions of dollars in the next couple of years to break even.
Oracle is highly overleveraged and I am hoping that the bubble takes them out.
You can find the gory details at Ed Zitron's blog.
https://www.wheresyoured.at/premium-how-the-ai-bubble-bursts...
Microsoft seem to be pushing all kinds of users away in all directions at the moment while focused on the AI bubble*. Once it bursts/deflats, will they come back?
Or are we looking at a post-Windows future, where MS just focuses on cloud stuff?
(Or will there be a 'we learned from our mistakes, honest' Windows 12 that wins people back in the same way that Win10 did after Win8?)
The problem is, when multi trillion dollars go poof everyone is going to feel the pain, even those that wisely stayed away from investing in the bubble.
epiccoleman|1 month ago
Google and Microsoft will obviously remain. I have a hard time envisioning that OpenAI or Anthropic will go under - especially Anthropic, who are reportedly raking in billions from Claude subscriptions.
Just from my armchair predictions, it's not really any of the juggernauts who have to worry, but rather the many companies springing up to try SaaS offerings with LLMs at the core. A bubble pop there could certainly cause some strife, but I'm just not seeing the mechanism by which these too-big-to-fail tech companies and the heavily invested "frontier AI companies" are going to suddenly cease to exist.
I think the dotcom bubble is a fairly apt metaphor in the key sense that the web didn't go anywhere - just a lot of small players lost their tickets on the gravy train. "Big tech" as it existed at the time of the bubble pop trundled along and continued making gobs of money.
estimator7292|1 month ago
Firefox will continue to languish while Mozilla execs receive 8-figure bonuses until there's nothing left to extract.
sparcpile|1 month ago
bluescrn|1 month ago
Microsoft seem to be pushing all kinds of users away in all directions at the moment while focused on the AI bubble*. Once it bursts/deflats, will they come back?
Or are we looking at a post-Windows future, where MS just focuses on cloud stuff?
(Or will there be a 'we learned from our mistakes, honest' Windows 12 that wins people back in the same way that Win10 did after Win8?)
rootnod3|1 month ago
usrbinbash|1 month ago
wolvoleo|1 month ago