[incomingpain]

Last 2 reported quarters have 3.8% and 4.4% gdp growth.

Next report is end of february. So it's minimum 4 months away at earliest.

Stock markets are at 10 year peaks.

Unemployment is a little bit high at 4.5%.

Inflation is a little bit high at 2.7%

US government debt is very high at 125%

PMIs are strong across the board.

Also in context, trillions in declared new investments in the usa. Probably trillions more in undeclared new investment trying to avoid tariffs.

No competitor possible on reserve currency status, Euro in about 2013 was looking like hot stuff but they regulated themselves out of it.

So I consider, the crash probability of the US economy is certainly not going to be happening.

[acuozzo]

> Stock markets are at 10 year peaks.

Put the value of gold on the X axis instead of the USD.

[acuozzo]

Correction: I was exhausted when I wrote this. I meant: keep time on the X, express the value of the stock in question in gold on the Y.

[koe123]

Is this the case with all bubbles? Might be a naive question

[CamperBob2]

The person declaring "trillions in new investments" is Donald Trump. He doesn't understand how tariffs work, he doesn't understand how trade works, and he doesn't understand how the truth works.

So many of the stats you mention are based on potentially-untruthful statements from the Trump administration. When the facts and figures aren't favorable to Trump, his strategy is to shoot the messenger and install his cronies. Works great, right up until it doesn't.

[amenhotep]

And the person you're replying to is someone who thinks "The case where Canada must be annexed is if Greenland somehow remains part of Denmark"! The veneer of civility on this site lets some really incredible people slip under the radar.

[benrutter]

I don't think this proves/suggests a crash will happen, but its worth considering most of what you've said would have been true right up until both the 2008 financial crash and the dotcom bubble.