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stateofinquiry | 27 days ago
Specifically: According to Wikipedia there were about 1.7 M undocumented people in Texas as of 2023. The study estimates 96.2 violent crimes per year per 100K for that same population. So that is about 1,635 violent crimes per year that should not happen. Across all the categories they present, its 308.8 crimes per 100K per year- so for the undocumented population that means about 5,250 crimes per year that in theory should not happen (if there were 0 undocumented people in Texas).
The fact that the rate is lower for native-born or legal immigrants is immaterial to the argument advanced by those seeking more enforcement of immigration laws. Now, there are many, many aspects of the current administration's approach that can be debated and will probably not stand up well to scrutiny, but its important to understand the arguments being made if we are honestly interested in engaging in discussion and improvement.
Another interesting thing: From the study results I think that if you did drop the number of undocumented people in Texas to 0, the crime rates would actually increase, even as the absolute number of crimes dropped. And the number would only drop if those removed were not replaced with (for example) legal immigrants.
watwut|27 days ago
Yes. But making their arguments into different, milder, sanitized and whitewashed ones is NOT understanding them. It is carrying water for them. As of now, both their rhetorics and actions match perfectly. There is zero reason to think this is about crime levels.
> The fact that the rate is lower for native-born or legal immigrants is immaterial to the argument advanced by those seeking more enforcement of immigration laws
When the deportations are done in an orderly manner and without visible abuses, these people are unhappy. When they are done with visible abuses, then they feel like they are getting what they wanted. They do not particularly like the focus on lawbreakers either, their own rhetoric casts violent law breaking as something good - if done by the right side. In fact, when only illegal immigrants are deported, they act like something was missing.
If we are honest to ourselves about what they want and openly talk about, they want white ethnostate. They have issue with legal migrants and with non white citizens too. They have issue with EU having non whites in it. Somehow, their primary targets are cities with relatively low illegal immigration rather then ... Texas with much higher illegal immigration.
constantius|27 days ago
> If we are honest to ourselves about what they want and openly talk about [...] without visible abuses, these people are unhappy.
You seem to be talking about a subset of all people who do not want immigration: caricaturally-extreme racists. You and GP are not talking about the same people, and GP is not carrying water for anyone.