[PassingClouds]

It is interesting to see who will get there first. China seems to be right on target with their schedule, but the US is being more ambitious, this also looks a bit more fragile on execution.

I long suspect Blue Origin will be the first US based to touch down as Starship is just too complicated to get it done in the next 2-3 years, but that doesnt mean even the 2028 landing is assured.

Space exploration had been fairly low key for decades but the last decade has been something to see.

[chihuahua]

Maybe my date calculations are off, but I think the people that landed on the moon on July 20, 1969 got there first. According to my calculations, if China lands people on the moon in 2030, that will be approximately 61 years later. The people that got there 61 years earlier can be reasonably said to have gotten there first.

Oddly enough, the same country also accomplished the second, third, fourth, fifth, and sixth landing on the moon by humans. So if all goes well, China can be extremely triumphant with their highly anticipated seventh place trophy.

[kube-system]

Neither the current space race nor the cold-war era space race have anything to do with planting a flag in a history book. They are geopolitical dick measuring contests of contemporary power.

The current question isn't "is it possible?", it is "who can pull it off today?"

[nancyminusone]

The people from 61 years ago are either extremely old or dead. Of the other three-quarters of the world population born after December 19, 1972, none have made it there; it will be a first for them.

[anigbrowl]

Kinda deliberately missing the point there, but go off.

[XorNot]

And as we all know, successful enterprises are always the ones which do something once and then never again for 61 years. /S

[throwui]

One was coloniser and another one was a colony. That's why 61y gap

[baxtr]

Are you talking about Mars? Moon happened a while back.

[tartoran]

Mars is Elon Musk fantasy. Manned missions to Mars are extremely dangerous and pointless at this time.

[georgeburdell]

Watch China’s announcements year to year and you’ll see their plans do change. Long March 9 has gone through enough design iterations that I wouldn’t even call it the same rocket anymore