[TingPing]

I feel like supply chain attacks are the much rarer situation than real world exploits but I don’t have numbers.

[krater23]

Supply chain attacks have impact on more systems, so it's more likely that your system is one of it. Opening a poisoned textfile that contains a exploit that attacks your text editor and fits exactly to your version is a rare event compared to automatically contacting a server to ask for a executable to execute without asking you.