[mwt]

Only through the first two paragraphs but a little turned off by the "everybody else is wrong, we are right and it's this one specific thing" attitude when it the topic is understanding something as complex and opaque as the global economy

[Trasmatta]

It reads exactly like a WallStreetBets "effort post" where someone has some pet theory that somehow explains the market in a way that nobody else understands, but is almost always either completely wrong, or a vast oversimplification

[01100011]

Fintwit is full of this crap. Fortunately it also has a few smart people who put it into context.

Financial doom porn sells well, but it's almost always wrong.

[everybodyknows]

For a better-credentialed opinion on Japan, here's the former Chief FX Strategist at Goldman Sachs:

https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/debt-crisis-in-japan

[svnt]

Yeah that part is a bit red string but the analysis further down is more reasonable. I have no idea whether it is an opportunity or someone grabbed the domain and going for a pump-and-dump, either seems plausible.

[terminalbraid]

Except the part where they confuse "cryptography" for cryptocurrency. Assuming they knew the difference.

[ToucanLoucan]

Personally I think Microsoft's stock is crashing less about any of this (though it is a hell of a theory IMO) and more to do with the fact that:

* They are investing in AI, both financially and by corporate communication, over and above everything else and pissing off damn near everyone in the process

* The XBox brand is tanking

* Windows is an utter disaster, according to Microsoft themselves, and Valve is so dispirited with it as the future for gaming that they've invested millions into a linux-based framework to run Windows games

[GorbachevyChase]

I’m a little impressed at how a company whose business model is to sell a product they developed in the 1990s over and over again while making inconsequential and non-breaking changes from year to year somehow still manage to screw that up. In my own opinion, they have always been a diabolical company. I’m glad to see them fail.

[wslh]

Love the last line, what Valve has done on Windows emulation is herculean, I don't know (it would be great to know) other businesses creating/investing in incredible and risky third-party compatible technologies to run their real business on top of it.

I worked in what other calls "Adversarial Interoperability" [1] but the scale of Valve is on another level.

[1] https://www.nektra.com/main/2020/01/12/reflecting-on-16-year...

[floatrock]

The Yen Carry Trade isn't some big secret... it's caused enough turmoil that it hit the front pages of the WSJ a few times in last few years (Aug 2024 was a big one iirc)

Finance bros will make their way in here soon to give a better peanut gallery, but I think "is there something here" comes down to do you believe the final bit of the articles opening act:

> When correlations between historically uncorrelated assets (e.g. Gold, Bitcoin, Microsoft, and Silver) approach 1.0 during a sell-off, it serves as a distinct indicator that traders are not selling what they want to sell, but rather what they must sell in order to meet margin calls in a funding currency that is rapidly appreciating against their liabilities.

[collingreen]

Do you organize a sit in for your ideas at work? This is a wild comparison.