Does anyone expect there will be a post oil industry? I would assume (with not particular knowledge on the subject mind) that once we wind down oil use for fuel and to some extent plastics, there will be enough oil in the ground to support enough extraction for asphalt and other currently trivial uses indefinitely.
Perz1val|24 days ago
We've already hit the point that electric cars are cheaper to operate, yet photovoltaic prices keep falling. Even equipment like electric excavators is now a thing. Batteries keep improving. It'll compound to smaller and smaller fuel, thus oil needs, so there will be less refining, thus less asphalt.
The assumption wasn't that that there will be no oil extraction, it was that there might be a future without tons of almost free road material. But I have zero expertise in oil macroeconomics, the question might've been stupid, I don't know that, haha
zdragnar|25 days ago
Mind you, this won't change the demand for asphalt shingles, they'll just be shipped from further, generating more C02 on the whole.
The only other current alternatives are all non-renewable as well- mined clay, slate, or metal. For residential roofs, I'm hoping metal continues to come down in price, as they tend to last longer and can be made to look quite good. For commercial / flat roofed buildings, there still needs to be some very thick rubberized underlayment below gravel or whatever to prevent standing water from getting in. The same is true for sod roofs in hobbit style earth homes.
So, yeah, there's still people in power who expect that all petroleum based products are equally evil and must be punished.
quickthrowman|25 days ago
For what it’s worth, Owens Corning operates an asphalt shingle plant in North Minneapolis (1701 49th Ave N) and they have no intentions of closing it down.
The commercial roof material you’re referring to is called EPDM rubber: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EPDM_rubber