You could get a visa in someplace like UAE tomorrow if you incorporate a shell company. Why would you wait if your plan is to flee anyway? It will only get more difficult the longer you wait.
By the way most countries require an apostilled FBI background check, recent copy of birth certificate w/ updated apostille, apostilled other documents, etc for a resident visa and they all have to be done within 90 days of your visa . So by the time the government is dysfunctional you'll only be able to flee to places without functional immigration control like Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, central Africa, etc as there will simply be no way to get the needed documents.
Oh and as a side note, having fought, and later leaving a civil war. Most likely you will get out if you have enough intelligence or money to navigate the border but you'll be robbed of everything you have on the way out unless you're just incredibly lucky.
Yes. Depending on the country and situation, these things can take a long time. We have ours in the works already and it's looking like 1-2 years to go through.
I may not be the best one to answer - I estimated 50% chance by last August. (I'm happy to be wrong.)
A civil war you can flee once the shooting starts. (Probably. Maybe not if you are male and of military age. And the region you're in may close the border for whatever reason.)
A coup is perhaps more likely to close the border, or at least to close it to "people like you" (if the side that doesn't like your kind is in charge). For that, I'd keep a close eye on this election, and up until the new Congress takes office, and maybe just after that. But if anything is going to happen, it will probably be before the new Congress is seated, because it's harder to create a veil of plausible grounds after that.
As somebody who'd rather fight the fascists now, I don't think it's super likely.
Enjoy some wild speculation, if that's your jam:
My bet is that DJT will kick off from a stroke in the next 2 years, the GOP will get beat, and things will "go back to normal". But the Dems will elect some jerk like Newsome and not do the important work of imposing consequences, so this fascist power will return after two presidential terms of delicious brunch (which will fail to make progress on the environment, mass incarceration, immigration, student loan debt, housing, the economy, or anything, really).
AI and small drones will be -even- better at that point, along with an ever tighter network of flock cameras.
The propaganda will be even more solid and the aging/retired gen-xers whose grand kids won't talk to them will largely be interacting with AI-based pals who are making the same kind of pronouncements that Nome and Vance are currently making but in the voice of their first girlfriend from 1987.
Personally, I'd rather see some very extreme change now instead of fighting that fight in 15 years (or, rather, supporting the 30 year olds fighting, because I will be pretty old then).
It's not a very realistic picture of the future though; it could be the case that all this comes to a head soon. It could be the case that soon folks have some real come-to-jeebus moment about Epstein-types and capitalism (hey, it's not Capitalism, it's just croney internationalist capitalism that is the problem bro, we can just implement this anarcho-Reaganist platform, these aren't limitations on capitalists, just "normal Christian Democrat" reforms).
It might be the case that the real limits of 3-5K soldiers operating against an armed and organized city of 100k midwesterners makes it obvious what the outcomes will be if they don't stop pushing their hands.
For instance, when they start busting, say, signal chat groups of suburban soccer moms that have taken up sniping tires and cutting the power to facilities, folks might no longer have the stomach for the kinds of applications of power necessary to prevent the actions of "the people" who have their hands on all the little levers.
It could be the case that the global ecosystem really is as bad as it appears and giant storms break all the just-in-time delivery systems in the so-called advanced but fault-intolerant countries about the same time Ebola Plus (tm) hits, and we all go back to living in the beautiful caves in the pinion forests of my back yard (that's my preferred outcome even though it'll probably kill me).
Hell monkeys could fly out of my butt (that would probably kill me too, but I die in most scenarios I can imagine).
To answer your question, all things equal if you're gonna flee, flee. I'm not, but that's because I don't think there is anywhere to go.
mothballed|25 days ago
By the way most countries require an apostilled FBI background check, recent copy of birth certificate w/ updated apostille, apostilled other documents, etc for a resident visa and they all have to be done within 90 days of your visa . So by the time the government is dysfunctional you'll only be able to flee to places without functional immigration control like Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, central Africa, etc as there will simply be no way to get the needed documents.
Oh and as a side note, having fought, and later leaving a civil war. Most likely you will get out if you have enough intelligence or money to navigate the border but you'll be robbed of everything you have on the way out unless you're just incredibly lucky.
beej71|25 days ago
AnimalMuppet|25 days ago
A civil war you can flee once the shooting starts. (Probably. Maybe not if you are male and of military age. And the region you're in may close the border for whatever reason.)
A coup is perhaps more likely to close the border, or at least to close it to "people like you" (if the side that doesn't like your kind is in charge). For that, I'd keep a close eye on this election, and up until the new Congress takes office, and maybe just after that. But if anything is going to happen, it will probably be before the new Congress is seated, because it's harder to create a veil of plausible grounds after that.
myvoiceismypass|25 days ago
scarecrowbob|25 days ago
Enjoy some wild speculation, if that's your jam:
My bet is that DJT will kick off from a stroke in the next 2 years, the GOP will get beat, and things will "go back to normal". But the Dems will elect some jerk like Newsome and not do the important work of imposing consequences, so this fascist power will return after two presidential terms of delicious brunch (which will fail to make progress on the environment, mass incarceration, immigration, student loan debt, housing, the economy, or anything, really).
AI and small drones will be -even- better at that point, along with an ever tighter network of flock cameras.
The propaganda will be even more solid and the aging/retired gen-xers whose grand kids won't talk to them will largely be interacting with AI-based pals who are making the same kind of pronouncements that Nome and Vance are currently making but in the voice of their first girlfriend from 1987.
Personally, I'd rather see some very extreme change now instead of fighting that fight in 15 years (or, rather, supporting the 30 year olds fighting, because I will be pretty old then).
It's not a very realistic picture of the future though; it could be the case that all this comes to a head soon. It could be the case that soon folks have some real come-to-jeebus moment about Epstein-types and capitalism (hey, it's not Capitalism, it's just croney internationalist capitalism that is the problem bro, we can just implement this anarcho-Reaganist platform, these aren't limitations on capitalists, just "normal Christian Democrat" reforms).
It might be the case that the real limits of 3-5K soldiers operating against an armed and organized city of 100k midwesterners makes it obvious what the outcomes will be if they don't stop pushing their hands.
For instance, when they start busting, say, signal chat groups of suburban soccer moms that have taken up sniping tires and cutting the power to facilities, folks might no longer have the stomach for the kinds of applications of power necessary to prevent the actions of "the people" who have their hands on all the little levers.
It could be the case that the global ecosystem really is as bad as it appears and giant storms break all the just-in-time delivery systems in the so-called advanced but fault-intolerant countries about the same time Ebola Plus (tm) hits, and we all go back to living in the beautiful caves in the pinion forests of my back yard (that's my preferred outcome even though it'll probably kill me).
Hell monkeys could fly out of my butt (that would probably kill me too, but I die in most scenarios I can imagine).
To answer your question, all things equal if you're gonna flee, flee. I'm not, but that's because I don't think there is anywhere to go.
Physkal|15 days ago