[LinXitoW]

The main issue with improvements in the last year is that a lot of it is based not on the models strictly becoming better, but on tooling being better, and simply using a fuckton more tokens for the same task.

Remember that all these companies can only exist because of massive (over)investments in the hope of insane returns and AGI promises. While all these improvements (imho) prove the exact opposite: AGI is absolutely not coming, and the investments aren't going to generate these outsized returns. The will generate decent returns, and the tools are useful.

[modeless]

I disagree. A year ago the models would not come close to doing this, no matter what tools you gave them or how many tokens you generated. Even three months ago. Effectively using tools to complete long tasks required huge improvements in the models themselves. These improvements were driven not by pretraining like before, but by RL with verifiable rewards. This can continue to scale with training compute for the foreseeable future, eliminating the "data wall" we were supposed to be running into.