[esbranson]

CES establishment payroll survey monthly change averages is quite the choice of stats lol.

JOLTS is where stress shows first. Openings fall,[1] hiring slows,[2] quits drop,[3] and layoffs rise later.[4] Biden in particular shows the weakness of your provided stats.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSJOL

[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSHIL

[3] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSQUL

[4] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSLDL

[gpt5]

Thanks for providing actual data and contributing to the discussion instead of the knee-jerk responses in the rest of the replies here.

The charts paint a much more precise picture on what is happening, and I actually don't see anything that strongly support it being a partisan effect.

[lostlogin]

Maybe read the top comment and examine the graph.

[esbranson]

The biggest change to me the acceptability of falsehoods on the left. It is a battle they will not win.

[gruez]

>CES establishment payroll survey monthly change averages is quite the choice of stats lol.

Can you explain why? Given that it's presumably averaged over the president's entire term, doesn't that provide a good measure of how much jobs were added under a given administration?

[esbranson]

It's a lagging indicator meant to credit or discredit administrations for past administrations' actions, handpicked to obfuscate cycle capture. CES is backward-looking by definition, so it is being abused here.

Also think of average populations under constant growth, as under Obama and Trump I pre-COVID: Trump's average would be higher in absolute terms than Obama, despite no fundamental change, and Biden higher still, and Trump II higher yet. Absolute populations and jobs go hand in hand. Averages without normalization are statistical theater.

Us Wikipedians have done a poor job on the federal statistical system (FSS or NSS), and this one of many results, this HN thread. I am working on it with the help of chat bots, but progress is slow given my focus on US healthcare and welfare systems. Fundamental laws have been documented, but the actual systems they enable are poorly documented.